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Let's assume Sir Keir Starmer desires to win the next election. Let's likewise presume he has no desire to be changed as Prime Minister in the next year approximately by Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner or anybody else.
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He's a political leader, after all, and political leaders enjoy power - Starmer more than most, I would think. I also recommend that he's at least averagely intelligent, and must be able to weigh up the chances of any policy prospering.
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After the battles, compromises and humiliations associated with accomplishing high workplace, Starmer has no intention of tossing it all away. Why, then, does he show every sign of doing so?

On the single concern that might matter most to a majority of voters, he is speeding towards certain disaster, while denying himself any prospect of an escape path. I mean the boats encountering the Channel.

Numbers of migrants doing the 21-mile journey are up by 42 percent on the very same period in 2015. An analysis by The Times, utilizing comparable modelling as Border Force, anticipates that 50,000 individuals will cross the Channel in small boats in 2025. That would be a yearly record - and a stonking ordeal for Sir Keir.

Peering into his mind, I reckon there are two main possible descriptions for his behaviour. One is that he is deluding himself. He really believes numbers will come down once the procedures he has taken start to work.

If Starmer still thinks that his policies - tossing numerous millions at the French authorities, enhancing intelligence and using boosted law enforcement powers - will minimize the numbers, that actually is the victory of hope over experience. The other possibility is that he is already beginning poorly to understand that his stratagems won't bear much, if any, fruit. So he and the Government have chosen to pull the wool over our eyes. A deadly approach.

There have been 2 such examples in recent days. Having stated in an online post on Monday that he felt 'upset' about the numbers crossing the Channel (how does he think the rest of us feel !?) the PM made a slippery claim.

Sir Keir Starmer now has nothing formidable in his locker, Stephen Glover composes

Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent out home in the 12 months to March, 3 per cent less than in the previous year

He boasted that 'nearly 30,000 individuals' had been gotten rid of from the UK by this Government. Sounds good. But in reality this figure describes all kinds of migrants who have no right to be in our nation. Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent home in the 12 months to March, 3 per cent less than in the previous year.

A lie? Good God no! We mustn't accuse Labour prime ministers, far less Sir Keir Starmer KCB, PC, KC, MP, of telling deliberate fibs. Shall we choose an analytical sleight of hand?

The other circumstances of the Government not being totally directly was the Home Office's claim previously this week that there have been more migrants this year since of pleasant weather. These are called 'red days', when the sea is calm.

But an analysis by my associate David Barrett in the other day's Mail shows that in temperate May last year there were 21 'red days' but just 2,765 arrivals, about 1,000 fewer than last month. In mild June 2024 there were 20 'red days', though only 3,007 migrants were tape-recorded crossing the Channel.

The most possible explanation is that last May and June the Government's strategy to send out prohibited migrants to Rwanda had actually finally cleared relentless judicial blockage. Some, a minimum of, were deterred from crossing the Channel for worry of being loaded off to the central African nation.

The Rwanda scheme was far from perfect - it was pricey, and responsible to legal obstacle due to the fact that the country has an authoritarian federal government - but at least it had some prospect of discouraging migrants. The incoming Labour Government got rid of its only possible means of suppressing the boats.

Helpful for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who in a speech tomorrow will carry out to resurrect a strategy strikingly comparable to the Rwandan one.

Starmer now has nothing formidable in his locker. Literally nothing. He can provide more millions to the French federal government however it will not make much, if any, distinction. French cops will still loll around on beaches, thinking of the sand castles they made as children, as they boats setting off for Dover.

The fact is that the French will never strain themselves since every migrant who leaves their shores is one less migrant for them to stress over. It is naive to picture that they are ever going to be zealous on our behalf.

STEPHEN GLOVER: Keir Starmer is a soft male who can not comprehend the true wicked Britain is facing

Nor will Sir Keir's concept of enhancing intelligence and police be decisive. As for Labour's reported intention to play with Article 8 of the Human Rights Act so as to preclude phony asylum claims, that is welcome, but even if it becomes law it is unlikely to have much effect on general numbers.

Are the PM and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper starting to panic as they realise they don't have a single policy likely to satisfy their promise of 'smashing the gangs'? If they aren't desperate, they jolly well need to be.

Three weeks back, Sir Keir was humiliated after he had praised talks over Rwanda-style 'return centers' only minutes before his Albanian counterpart, standing a couple of feet away, eliminated any cooperation.

Maybe the Government will convince the Kosovans or the North Macedonians to set up some sort of scheme. But if it does, it will take months, if not years, and individuals will wonder why Sir Keir cancelled a plan that he is at least partly attempting to revive.

I have actually no specific wish to throw Starmer a lifeline however, as I have actually recommended before, there's one possible course out of the hole he has actually dug for himself - though it would take enormous determination and nerve for him to take it.

There are lots of uninhabited British islands off our coast and more afield. Pick among them. Create a camp comparable to those on the Isle of Man that housed alien internees throughout the War. Build hundreds of huts - rather than putting up less strong camping tents, as ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe has proposed.

Recruit doctors and authorities to evaluate claims faster than occurs at present - and then return most migrants to where they originated from. The cost of setting up such a camp would be a portion of the ₤ 4.3 billion spent last year on housing migrants and asylum applicants.

Can anybody inform me why not? Few migrants would elegant kicking their heels for months in a camp, however gentle, so it would be a marvellous deterrent. Cross the Channel, and you will be our visitor - on a perhaps windy island rather than in a four-star hotel.

Granted, in order to ward off vexatious legal difficulties we 'd probably have to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights, which would be an action too far for our mindful Prime Minister.

But he does not have a much better idea. In truth, he hasn't got any concepts at all that are responsible to stem the growing varieties of people streaming across the English Channel.

Things can only become worse - and as they do Labour will sink ever lower in public esteem. Does Sir Keir Starmer actually wish to be the signatory of his own political death warrant?

RwandaAngela RaynerLabourWes Streeting